TerryCalls is a live trading desk for the Bitcoin Up/Down markets on Polymarket US. Terry is the trading agent behind it. He watches BTC second by second, decides when a contract is mispriced, and trades BTC Up/Down so everyone can see exactly what he does and how it turns out.
Read this first
Terry makes live calls on Polymarket US BTC Up/Down. Past results do not mean future profit. Markets move fast, fills and fees matter, and you can lose money. Nothing on this site is financial advice, and TerryCalls is not an offer to trade for you.
The site in one minute
The market
Will BTC finish higher?
Every 15 minutes and every hour, Polymarket US opens a new question: will Bitcoin close the window at or above where it opened? You buy Up or Down. The winning side pays $1 per contract.
The bot
Terry makes the call
Terry combines the live BTC index, the order book, recent trades and a settlement-probability model. He only buys when the price is cheaper than his estimate of the real odds, after fees.
The desk
You watch it live
The site is a row of tabs. Home is the quick look: Terry's leans, his latest trades and the chart. The other tabs open the full leans, trades, chart, tape, record, sports combos and settings.
Pick your path
New to Polymarket?
Learn the basics first
What a prediction market is, how $1 contracts work, bids and asks, fees, and how to open an account.
A contract pays $1 or $0.If you buy Up at 60¢ and BTC finishes at or above the opening price, you get $1. If not, you get nothing. The price you pay is the market's guess at the probability.
The result uses an official index, not the chart on your exchange.Settlement uses the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the last 60 seconds of the window. Your Coinbase or Binance price can be a few dollars different.
Time and distance decide the odds.BTC $100 above the opening price with 1 minute left is almost certain to win. The same $100 with 12 minutes left is closer to a 68% shot. Terry's whole job is measuring that gap against the price.
Plain English
Terry is not trying to predict where Bitcoin goes tomorrow. He is trying to answer one small question many times a day: is this contract cheaper right now than its real chance of paying $1?
Section 02 · For newbies10 minute read
Polymarket 101.
Polymarket US is a CFTC-regulated exchange where people trade on the outcome of real events. Instead of betting against a house, you trade with other people, and the prices come entirely from what those people are willing to pay.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a place where people trade on the odds of future events. Each question (called a market) has contracts that pay $1.00 if the outcome happens and $0.00 if it does not. Because the payout is fixed at $1, the price reads like a probability: a contract trading at $0.70 means the market thinks the outcome is about a 70% chance.
Polymarket does not set the prices. They move every time a buyer and seller agree on a trade, so the odds update in real time as news and prices change.
Price ≈ probability. The less likely the outcome, the cheaper the contract and the bigger the payout if you're right.
One instrument, two sides
On Polymarket US each market has a single instrument. Buying it is the YES side; selling short it is the NO side. There are no separate "No" tokens: shorting creates a synthetic No position that pays exactly like one. In the BTC Up/Down markets this shows up as two buttons:
Long side
Buy Up
You pay the Up ask. Pays $1 if BTC closes at or above the price to beat.
Short side
Buy Down
Costs $1 minus the Up bid. If the best Up bid is 58¢, Down costs 42¢. Pays $1 if BTC closes below the price to beat.
Bid, ask and spread
Bid
The highest price someone is willing to pay right now. When you sell, you get the bid.
Ask
The lowest price someone is willing to sell at. When you buy, you pay the ask.
Spread
The gap between them. A 2¢ spread means you would lose about 2¢ per contract if you bought and sold immediately, before fees. Tight spreads are cheap to trade; wide spreads are expensive.
Depth
How many contracts are waiting at each price. If only 200 contracts sit at the best ask and you want 500, the rest fills at worse prices or waits on the book.
How orders fill
Every order on Polymarket US is a marketable limit order. It fills at the best price shown, never worse than the price you set. If there is not enough size at that price you get a partial fill, and the rest stays on the book as an open order until it fills or you cancel it. Polymarket US only trades whole contracts, so a $100 order at 60¢ buys 166 contracts ($99.60) and the leftover 40¢ goes back to your cash.
Why does my position look down right after I buy?
Two reasons, both normal. Your position is valued at the bid (what you could sell for), which is below the ask you just paid. And you paid a taker fee. A new position usually shows a small loss equal to the spread plus fees.
Fees, explained with real numbers
Polymarket US charges a taker fee when your order takes liquidity from the book (which is what a normal buy or sell does). The formula is:
Fee = 0.0695 × contracts × price × (1 − price)
The fee is largest at 50¢ and shrinks toward 1¢ and 99¢. Orders that rest on the book and get filled later (makers) receive a small rebate instead.
BTC finishes Up: you receive $100.00 → profit +$38.33
BTC finishes Down: you receive $0 → loss −$61.67
Sell early at a 75¢ bid: 100 × $0.75 = $75.00 minus fee $1.30 = $73.70 → profit +$12.03
Round trips cost fees twice, so a trade needs to move a few cents in your favor before selling early makes money. This is why Terry is picky about small edges.
You can always sell early
You never have to wait for the result. Sell your contracts at the current bid any time before the window closes and the cash lands in your balance immediately. Prices move fast near the end of a window, so the price you get can change quickly.
Getting started on Polymarket US
Create an account.Sign up and verify your identity (KYC). Polymarket US is regulated, so this is required before trading.
Fund it.Deposit by debit card (instant), bank transfer (ACH) or wire. Your funds are held in a dedicated customer account separate from the company's money.
Find the BTC markets.Browse to Crypto. The Up/Down windows are listed as "Bitcoin Up or Down" for 15 minutes and 1 hour.
Place a small first trade.Enter a dollar amount on Up or Down, check the price and fee, and confirm. Start tiny while you learn how fills and fees feel.
Watch your position.Your portfolio shows current value at the bid. Sell early, or hold and the winning side is paid $1 per contract shortly after the window closes.
Trading hours
Polymarket US runs nearly 24/7, including weekends, with a weekly maintenance window every Thursday 6:00–8:00 AM ET. Up/Down windows that would overlap maintenance are not listed. Trading can also pause without notice for emergency maintenance.
Each Up/Down market asks one question about a short window of time: will Bitcoin's price at the end be at or above its price at the start? Terry trades two of them at once: the 15-minute window and the 1-hour window.
The life of one window
1-hour windows work the same way, listed about 24 hours ahead. About 48 fifteen-minute and 24 hourly windows are open at any time, around the clock.
The price to beat
The opening value of the window is called the price to beat. It is not the BTC price at one instant. It is the simple average of the 60 one-second BRTI prices from 59 seconds before the window starts up to and including the start second. Polymarket publishes it a few seconds after the window opens. Until then the desk shows US opening price pending.
The close is calculated exactly the same way at the end of the window. If the close is equal to or above the price to beat, Up wins. Ties go to Up.
Why an average matters
Because the close is a 60-second average, a single last-second spike cannot flip the result. In the final minute, part of the answer is already locked in by the seconds that have passed. That makes the last minute much more predictable than it looks on a fast chart.
What is BRTI?
The CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index is a regulated benchmark that blends BTC/USD prices from several major exchanges and publishes a new value every second. Every Polymarket US crypto market settles on it. Prices on a single exchange, including Coinbase, have no effect on settlement, so they can be a few dollars off in either direction. Terry always compares against BRTI when it is available.
If Polymarket's index feed goes dark, Terry keeps trading on a clearly labelled stand-in built from the median of Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp and Gemini, with extra safety margins. See Meet Terry.
Reading the two prices
Price to beat$83,495.58
BTC now (60s BRTI avg)$83,561.20
Distance+$65.62 · Up leading
Buy Up ask71¢Buy Down (1 − Up bid 69¢)31¢
Here BTC is $65 above the opening price, so Up is winning for now and costs 71¢. Whether 71¢ is a good price depends on how much time is left. With 10 minutes to go, BTC easily moves $65, so Up is worth well under 71¢. With 90 seconds to go, $65 is a big cushion and Up may be worth more than 71¢. The signs section has a full table.
Settlement
Up/Down windows settle shortly after the close, typically within a minute.
If any BRTI prices for the settlement minute are missing, settlement is deferred until the data is complete. No market settles on partial data.
Winning contracts pay $1.00 each to your cash balance. Losing contracts pay nothing.
Up/Down markets never settle early; they always settle at the stated time.
Terry is two things working together: a fast, disciplined decision maker, and a set of hard safety rules he cannot talk his way around. The decision maker picks the side and the moment. The rules make sure every fill respects live book depth, fees and risk limits.
What the two desks run today
Both desks run Terry Market Maker (the third card below). In plain terms:
He only buys the favorite. Terry rests bids on Up and on Down a little under his value, but only where the price is between 67¢ and 92¢. In his own results, sides bought below 37¢ won about 1 time in 5 and cost more than they paid back; sides above 67¢ won about 4 in 5. Cheap underdogs are skipped, even when the model likes them.
When. The 15-minute desk quotes from 1 minute in until 7 minutes are left. The 1-hour desk quotes only in the last 30 minutes and stops 90 seconds before the close.
How much. Up to $100 a trade and never more than 15% of the desk's cash.
Quotes are pulled when BTC jumps fast (about $12 on the 15-minute desk, $15 on the hourly), when a side's price has just dropped 2¢, or when BTC has moved $15 against a side in the last 30 seconds.
Selling. He offers a position back at his value, never below his entry plus 1¢ unless the trade is clearly broken. Once a position is up 4¢ a contract he locks the gain if it gives back 2.5¢ and is still ahead. A near-$1 position is banked. A loser is sold only after the condition holds for 6 seconds, never into a bounce, with a hard stop if the value falls 25¢ below entry. Otherwise it rides to the official result.
Retired. The stale-price "snipe" and the follow-through entry (buying after a move has already happened) were switched off after they lost money.
Four ways Terry can decide
Terry Quant
Pure expected value
Every call is arithmetic you can check: the settlement model's odds are blended with the market's own odds, and Terry buys only when that blended chance beats the ask plus fee by a set margin. Size comes from fractional Kelly. He sells only when the book pays more than holding is worth. No language model is involved, so every call is instant, repeatable and backtested.
Terry Maker
Earn fees instead of paying them
Same odds as Terry Quant, but Terry rests limit orders on the book instead of crossing the spread. Polymarket US pays resting orders a rebate (about 0.3¢ a contract at 50¢) instead of charging the taker fee (about 1.7¢). In Terry’s results, a resting order only counts as filled when the market actually trades through its price. That keeps the results honest, because it captures the real catch: resting orders tend to fill right when the price is moving against you.
Terry Market Maker
Quote both sides, earn the spread
Built for the 15-minute desk. Terry keeps a small bid resting on Up and on Down, each a little below his value, for most of the window. When the market fills one side, he offers it back above value. His value uses BRTI updated with Coinbase's latest move, and he pulls every quote the instant Coinbase moves fast, which is when resting orders get picked off.
Terry adaptive
JEV judgment + safety rules
The original mode: the JEV model picks the side and plan from a data snapshot, and the rules on the next two pages decide whether the buy is allowed and when to sell.
The desk shows which mode each desk is running. In Terry Quant mode, the outlook line reads like "BUY UP: UP 78% (model 84%, market 71%) vs 71¢ ask + 1.4¢ fee. Edge +5.2¢ per contract." Every number in the call is one you can check yourself.
In Terry Quant mode, Terry only enters late in a window, because that's where the model has proven more accurate than the market: the last 5 minutes on the 15m desk and the last 15 minutes on the 1h desk. Stakes are capped at $100, and each desk stops opening new trades for the day after a $150 realized loss.
From raw data to a trade
Terry reviews each market about every 10 seconds (every 5 seconds late in a window) and immediately when a real edge appears. Open positions are re-marked against a fresh full order book about every 3 seconds.
Two desks, two books
The 15-minute and 1-hour markets behave differently, so Terry runs them as two completely separate books. A loss on one desk never changes decisions on the other. Each desk can hold one position at a time and make up to 3 entries per window.
The fair-value model
Before Terry even looks at a trade, a math model estimates the real chance that Up wins. It treats BTC as a random walk over the time that is left, measures how jumpy BTC has been over the last 5 and 30 minutes (volatility), and accounts for the 60-second settlement average. It then runs the numbers at low, normal and high volatility and keeps the least favorable result, the "robust" probability. A trade only counts as having an edge if it still looks good in the worst of the three.
Example model read
BTC +$65 over the beat, 4 minutes left. Model says Up wins 78% (robust range 74–81%). Up ask is 71¢ + 1.4¢ fee = 72.4¢ all-in. Robust edge: 74% − 72.4% = +1.6¢, which is not enough. Terry needs at least 3¢ robust and 5¢ at the middle estimate.
What Terry is given
Terry's job is to make a fast decision. The system's job is to give him everything that matters, pre-computed, so he never has to guess:
Distance from the price to beat, time left, and the 60-second average so far
BTC moves over the last 15 seconds to 30 minutes, highs and lows, and whether momentum is speeding up
Both asks, the spread, visible depth, top-of-book balance, and recent trade flow
The fair-value odds and edge for each side, after fees
His own recent wins and losses on this desk, with size, time held and exit reason
He answers with a side (Up, Down or sit), a plan (a quick swing to resell higher, or a hold to settlement), and a stake. A decision that takes longer than 8 seconds is thrown away as stale.
When the official index goes dark
If Polymarket's BRTI feed stops, Terry does not shut down. He switches to a stand-in index: the median of Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp and Gemini (at least two fresh venues), or Coinbase alone as a last resort. The desk labels it clearly, and because a stand-in can be a few dollars off, Terry demands extra edge (+1.5¢ composite, +2.5¢ Coinbase-only) and skips coin-flip entries hugging the price to beat late in the window.
Honest about uncertainty
The model is a model. It ignores news, jumps and anything the order book knows that the index does not. A live scorecard tracks settled windows. When the model starts losing money or trailing the market, both edge thresholds automatically rise by 3¢ until it recovers.
Section 05 · Entries7 minute read
How Terry buys.
A buy only happens when Terry picks a side and every safety gate passes. Most of the time the answer is "sit", and the desk tells you exactly why.
Which rules are these?
The two desks run Terry Market Maker, whose own entry rules (favorites only, 67¢ to 92¢, resting bids, timing windows) are summarized in Meet Terry. The tables and gates below describe the adaptive engine's timing and the safety checks every fill shares: fresh data, a tight spread, and a real fill from the live book.
When in the window
Phase
15-minute desk
1-hour desk
Why
Opening
No entries in the first 2 min
No entries in the first 3 min
The opening move is noise until the price to beat is set and BTC picks a direction.
Early
Until 5 min in, BTC must be at least $10 from the beat
Same
No direction formed yet.
Patience zone
More than 7.5 min left
More than 28 min left
Terry waits for a cheaper ask unless the edge is strong (6¢+), the ask is already 8¢+ below fair value, or BTC is spiking: $80+ from the beat on the 15m ($120+ on the 1h), the gap growing and momentum accelerating the same way. Spikes reprice fast, so waiting would only cost more.
Late cutoff
No new entries in the last 2 min (4 min without the model)
Last 5 min (8 min without the model)
Too little time to recover from a bad fill.
Final minutes
Only a hold-to-settlement buy on the leading side, when the model shows a strong, robust favorite (80%+ and a large statistical cushion)
Buying a near-certain winner for less than $1.
The gates every buy must pass
Fresh data.A current market, a fresh BTC reading and a fresh full order book. Anything older is rejected.
Not too close to the beat.BTC must be at least $40 away from the price to beat, whatever the plan. Thin-gap trades were the biggest source of stop-outs. A missing distance fails closed.
Tight spread.Spread of 6¢ or less.
Real edge after fees.The robust probability must beat the ask plus the taker fee by at least 3¢, and the middle estimate by 5¢. The edge must persist for 3 seconds so a single flickering quote cannot trigger a buy.
Enough to resell.For a quick swing, the target sale price has to cover the spread, both fees and a 2.5¢ buffer, and stay near recently observed prices.
No chasing.After a sharp spike Terry waits for a retest. After selling one side, he won't rebuy it if the market clearly leans the other way.
Room on the desk.At most 3 entries per window, a short cooldown after each exit (10s on 15m, 20s on 1h), and enough available cash.
A real fill.Right before recording the buy, the system re-reads the full book and only fills whole contracts actually available at the best price.
How much he buys
Normal trust
$125 – $250
Early or mid-window entries with a clear gap and solid edge use the normal band (usually $125–$175, up to $250 for the strongest cases). A quarter-Kelly calculation keeps size in proportion to the edge.
Soft trust
$60 – $80
Entries that still pass but are late, chasing a fast move, or only barely above the edge threshold (under 4¢) are sized down to $60–$80.
Common "sit" reasons you'll see
Watching the opening move
Inside the opening minutes; no entries yet.
Too close to settlement
Past the late cutoff. Terry's lean still refreshes every 5 seconds.
Spread is too wide
More than 6¢ between bid and ask.
No fee-adjusted edge
The price is fair or expensive once fees are included.
This ask exceeds the estimated settlement value
Buying would be paying more than the model thinks the contract is worth.
Waiting for a retest
Chase risk: the contract just spiked.
Terry chose to wait
The gates might pass, but Terry didn't see a strong enough case.
This window reached its trade limit
Three entries already used.
Section 06 · Exits7 minute read
How Terry sells.
Every open position is re-priced about every 3 seconds as if Terry sold the entire position right now into the real book, after the sell fee. That number, not a pretty mid-price, drives every exit decision.
Which rules are these?
Today's desks use the market-maker exits (offer at value, lock a gain after a 4¢ run-up, bank near $1, confirm before selling a loser): see Meet Terry. The menu below is the adaptive engine's, and the closing rules are shared: an exit is recorded only against a refetched book, and the official result is credited once.
In Terry Quant mode
Exits are one rule: sell when the full sale after fees pays more than the contract is worth to hold (its blended probability of paying $1), or when it pays 97¢ or more. Otherwise hold to settlement. There are no percentage stops, because selling a contract for less than it's worth locks in the loss plus fees. The menu below applies to Terry adaptive mode.
The exit menu
Exit
What triggers it
Desk label
Profit target
Gain of at least $3 and 8% of cost on a momentum swing (18% otherwise), unless holding to settlement is clearly worth more.
Swing scalp / took profit
Early take-profit
With plenty of time left (15m ≥6 min / 1h ≥20 min), bank when mark profit is ~≥15% of cost, or after ~50% giveback from a peak of ≥$15 / 10% of cost — so a mid-window winner is not ridden back to scratch.
Banked mid-window before giveback
Trailing profit
After being up at least $2 or 10%, gives back 35% of the best gain. Mid-window with a healthy peak, banks at ~50% giveback. Nearer the close, if BTC's trend still supports the side, Terry allows up to 55% before selling.
Swing gain protected after a pullback
Break-even lock
Was clearly green ($4+ or 10%+), now back near zero. Sells about flat rather than let it turn red.
Locked near break-even
Near-$1 bank
A full sale nets at least 97¢ per contract. Takes it rather than risk a last-second flip for 3¢.
Banked near $1 before settlement
Late profit
Final 2 min (15m) or 5 min (1h) with at least $1 of gain.
Gain captured near the close
Fair-value exit
The book pays at least what the model thinks the contract is worth, or the edge is gone.
Sold — settlement edge was gone
Stop loss
See below.
Stopped out
Hold to settlement
None of the above; the position rides to the official $1 or $0.
Held to settlement
The stop loss, and when it waits
The stop is sized to the position: the larger of $3 or 35% of cost on the 15-minute desk, and $4 or 30% on the hourly desk. The loss must show up on at least 2 separate book updates spanning 5+ seconds, so one bad quote can't stop Terry out. Even then, the stop waits when:
the model says holding is worth clearly more than selling (by at least $2) and there is time left;
Terry's latest forecast still gives the held side 60%+ and the loss is under 1.5× the stop;
BTC is only wicking a couple of dollars around the price to beat, a common fake-out.
A much larger loss (2× the stop), a forecast flip, or the final minutes still let the stop fire.
Exits are checked like entries
An exit is recorded only after the system refetches the book and confirms the full position could be sold at those prices. If the visible bids can't absorb the whole position, the position stays open rather than pretending. Anything still open at the close is settled at the official result.
After the trade
Every closed trade records its best and worst marks while open, so the ledger shows how much upside was left on the table and how much drawdown was avoided. A compact summary of recent results is fed back to Terry for his next decisions. This is feedback, not retraining the underlying model.
Early exit vs official result
If Terry sells early, his cash is credited once at the sale price. The later official outcome is still recorded for analysis but never changes realized P/L. That's why a trade can show "sold +$9" even though the side later won $1.
Section 07 · Reading the desk10 minute read
How to watch Terry.
The site is a row of tabs along the top (on a phone, one Menu button that opens them all, so nothing scrolls sideways). Home is the quick look; every other tab opens one part of the desk in full. Here is what each shows and what to glance at first.
The site has a dark mode: it follows your phone by default, and the Appearance switch in the More tab lets you force Light or Dark (the field guide and the Sports page follow it). The first time you visit, a short tour walks through all eight tabs, one card each. Skip it any time, and take it again from the More tab. Terms with a dotted underline (break-even, price to beat, premium, edge and a few more) explain themselves when you tap them.
The tabs
Home
Terry now (the live lean on each desk), the last 20 leans, his latest trades (tap one for its receipt), and the chart at the bottom. The final-minute tracker and your position strip appear here when they apply.
Leans
The full lean cards with the price they are good up to and the break-even line, first-lean and last-lean accuracy, each desk's countdown, odds and quotes, and the window-by-window history.
Trades
Each desk's open position and ledger, the strip of recent results, My position, and the full trade history.
Chart
The full BTC chart with every control: ranges, candles or line, indicators, and BTC price alerts.
Tape
Read the tape: what BTC is doing, where the contract can land, a profit-target calculator, and when BTC moves during the day.
Record
Terry's P/L, win rate, lean accuracy and curve, plus the calibration chart and the follow-the-lean what-if. Under the first-lean and last-lean tiles, price alone is how often the side the market itself favored at that moment was right on the same windows: a lean is only worth having when it beats that. The last lean is posted close to the end, so it is right almost every time; the first lean is the one to judge.
Sports
Combos: the best chance of winning, the live combo market, and locked-profit setups. See Sports combos.
More
The introduction and links, alert settings, quiet hours and the health of each desk.
The status line
● Live Market and trading service runningChecked 7:05:12 PM
The lamp shows whether data is flowing. Live means fresh prices. Delayed or Stale means readings stopped advancing; don't trust the numbers until it recovers. A banner appears if the Polymarket feed is degraded, and turns green when it recovers.
Terry now
Two cards, one per market, with the countdown to the close, Terry's current state (Watching, Open Up, Open Down), his lean and the executable P/L of any open position. Tap a card to open the full lean. Under the lean you see the highest price where buying still leaves an edge ("good up to"), whether the current ask is still worth it, and a break-even line: the win rate the ask needs, against what Terry says.
The chart
One live BRTI reading feeds the chart and both sliders. The chart shows candles or a line with the price to beat and the 60-second average drawn in. If the official index is down, the label says Coinbase spot or composite stand-in. Gaps stay blank rather than being filled in.
The desk (one per market)
Market closes in
The big countdown. It turns amber when time is short.
Price to beat
The official opening value, with a range bar. The needle shows where BTC's 60-second average sits: left of center (red side) means Down is winning, right (green side) means Up is winning.
Buy Up ask / Buy Down
What each side costs right now. Buy Down is priced from the Up bid (1 − bid).
Live trade feed
The latest trade with the taker's intent (buying Up, buying Down, selling).
Terry outlook
Terry's lean (Up, Down or sit), his estimated odds, and a plain-English reason. When he sits, the reason says exactly which gate blocked the trade.
Open position
Side, contracts, entry price and cost, the full sell value after fees, mark P/L, visible exit quantity, profit high/low and giveback, time held, and Terry's latest hold/exit review.
Current run
Available cash, trades this session, session P/L, and lifetime P/L across all runs. "Build" is the strategy version that made the decisions.
The stamp in the corner of each desk tells you its state at a glance:
WatchingOpen UpOpen DownDelayedWaiting for entry
Trade and market history
Every buy, sale and official result, newest first, in your time zone. Each closed trade gets a receipt with the P/L, exit reason, time held and the official outcome.
Chat
The chat button shows the live comments from the current 15-minute market on Polymarket US (read-only here). Use "Open this market on Polymarket US" to reply there.
On your phone
The tab bar scrolls sideways; your place is kept in the address, so a link opens the same tab.
On the Leans and Trades tabs the two desks become tabs (15m / 1h) with their own countdowns.
When you scroll past an open position, a sticky mini-bar keeps its side and P/L visible.
Quiet hides the long explanation text on the desk (it does not change alerts).
When the site is updated, an open app shows a New update ready card. Tap Restart now to load the new version.
Install the site to your home screen for full-screen use and alerts. See Alerts & app.
A 30-second routine
Is the lamp green?If not, wait.
How much time is left and how far is BTC from the beat?Countdown plus needle.
What does Terry say and why?Read the outlook reason. It's the most educational line on the page.
If he's in: what's the full sell value?That's the real P/L, not the ask or the mid.
Section 08 · Tools6 minute read
Trader tools.
Extra tools for people making their own trades on Polymarket US. They read prices and Terry's history. None of them places a trade, and none of them is advice.
On the lean cards
Break-even
What the ask needs to be worth it
Buying at 57¢ costs about 58.7¢ with the fee, so that side must win at least 59% of the time to break even. The line under each lean shows that figure next to what Terry says (for example "break-even needs 59% · Terry says 62% (+3 pts)"). A green dot means Terry's number clears it by 2 points or more, amber is within 2 points, red means the ask is more than the odds justify.
On the Home tab
Final minute
Appears by itself
In the last 75 seconds of a window it shows how many seconds of the 60-second average are already locked in, what the rest of the minute must average for Up to win, and how far BTC is from that. Before the average starts it counts down to it. The official result is the venue's figure, not this estimate.
My position
A strip while you hold one
If you track a position (below), a strip on Home shows its side, size, entry and live result. Tap it to open the full tracker.
On the Trades tab: My position
Tell the page what you bought on Polymarket (side, the price you paid in cents, and how many contracts). It then follows the position live:
A sale now fetches and the average sale price: what selling your whole size would bring through the real order book, after the fee, and whether all of it would fill.
Break-even sale price: the bid you need to get your cost back, and the BTC level that would take the market there.
Chance it pays $1 and if held to the close: Terry's model of holding, on average, next to selling now.
Set alert: a ping when the side can be sold at a price you pick (see Alerts).
When you are out, record I sold at the bid, It paid $1 or It paid nothing. The journal keeps your last trades with the profit after fees and exports to a CSV file.
Your data stays on your device
The position and journal are kept in this browser only. Nothing is sent to TerryCalls or anywhere else. Clearing site data or switching browsers starts them fresh.
On the Leans tab: Window by window
Every settled window with Terry's first lean and last lean, whether each was right, how many times he flipped, and the official result. Tap a window to replay it: BTC's path with a dashed line at the start price, a triangle for each lean call, a circle where Terry bought, and a step list. Old price history is not kept forever, so very old windows may show only the lean calls.
On the Record tab
Is the percentage honest?
Groups Terry's leans by the odds he stated (50–55%, 55–60% and so on) and shows how often each group was right. Bars level with the dotted line mean his percentages are honest; bars below it mean he was overconfident. Numbers under the bars are how many windows each band holds.
If you had followed the lean
$100 on the leaned side at its ask for each past window: the first lean, the last lean, and the first lean only when the price was still worth it. Fees are in, slippage is not. It describes the past; it does not promise what comes next.
On the Tape tab
The profit target card now includes "Selling N now fills at…": the average price your size would really get through the visible bids, and whether it all fills.
When BTC moves: typical one-minute movement for each hour of your day over the last 14 days. Taller bars are faster hours; the current hour is marked "now".
These are estimates
Chances come from Terry's volatility model and recent prices. Books move in seconds. Treat every figure as a reference, check the live price on Polymarket before you trade, and never risk money you cannot lose.
Section 09 · Sports7 minute read
Sports combos.
The Sports tab looks at Polymarket US sports markets, and in particular at combos: bets that bundle several outcomes into one. It reads prices and sportsbook odds only. Nothing on it places a trade.
What a combo is
A combo joins 2 to 10 legs. Each leg is a market plus a side (buy it to win or sell it, meaning it must lose). The combo pays only if every leg comes in.
It pays the full prize times the value of each leg: $1 for a leg that wins, $0 for one that loses. A leg that cannot resolve (a cancelled match, say) counts at its last fair market price, which reduces the payout but never rescues a combo that already has a losing leg.
A combo is its own instrument with its own order book. You can sell it before the legs finish (cash out) at whatever the book bids.
Combo buyers pay a separate, higher taker fee: about $1.92 on 100 contracts at 50¢, against $1.74 for an ordinary contract.
The three parts of the tab
Best chance of winning
Picks from sportsbook odds
Takes the sportsbooks' odds with their margin removed as an outside view of each game, then prices every leg on Polymarket. It builds combos from legs in different games (they are independent, so the chance is the legs multiplied) that pay at least 2×, and shows three: the highest chance of winning, the best expected value, and the highest chance among combos that still have an edge. Often nothing has an edge, and the page says so.
The combo market
What buyers really pay
Rebuilds the combos that traded in the last minutes and compares the price paid with the legs multiplied together. Premium is the gap; edge is fair price minus price paid minus the fee. Tap a combo for its legs by name, a note if the book was crossed (sells filling above buys), and a cash-out ladder: what the combo is worth after each leg wins.
Locked-profit setups
When prices disagree
Scans games starting in the next two days for sets where exactly one outcome wins and the prices add to under $1 after fees, and for spread or total lines that are priced out of order. Each row shows the size the books support and the profit after fees. Every leg is a separate order, so a locked profit is only locked if all legs fill.
Small, medium, big and insane combos
Pick a size first and the page fetches only that one: small (2 to 4 times your money, 2 to 3 legs), medium (4 to 10 times), big (10 to 30 times) or insane (30 to 150 times, up to 10 legs). A smaller size reads fewer games, so it is quicker and uses fewer odds credits. You get the most likely combo that still pays in that band, with legs from different games only so they are independent. Every extra leg makes winning less likely: the insane size is a long shot by design and says so. "Other picks" shows the best-value and best-edge combos instead.
Tools around the picks
Build your own combo. Pick up to 10 legs, one per game. Open it without running Picks and it loads the games that have not started from the exchange's own prices (the chance is then what the market says, not the sportsbooks' view; run Picks to bring the books' odds in). It shows the chance all legs win, estimated price and fee, a cash-out ladder as legs come in, and a cautious stake (a quarter of the Kelly size, capped at 2% of the bankroll you enter), or says no stake is suggested when the numbers do not support one.
Bet slip and share cards. Copy the legs as text, open each game on Polymarket, send any suggestion to the builder, or make a share card: a picture of the combo (legs, chance, price, payout) for your phone's share sheet. Window replays on the Leans tab have the same: a card with the BTC path, the lean calls and the result.
My combos. Add a suggestion straight from its card with Add to My combos (it starts at $10, change the amount on the card), or type what you would stake in the builder and tap Track: the page then follows that amount (you can edit it later on the card). Track a built combo on this device: each leg shows won, lost or open with its current chance and the live score of its game (final score, or period and clock while it is on), plus what the combo is worth now and what a cash-out would net. It is saved in your browser only. A leg counts as won or lost as soon as its game is final: the page reads the final score and works out moneyline, spread and total legs itself, so you do not have to wait for the market to settle (a push, or a game it cannot match, stays open). The card refreshes by itself: every 15 seconds while one of its games is on, every 30 seconds in the 45 minutes before a start, once a minute otherwise, and again when you come back to the page (a line says how fresh it is, and Refresh now forces it). Tap Alert me on a tracked combo (it needs Desk alerts on this device) and the server watches it for you: you get a push when another leg wins (for example, 4 of 5 legs won, one game left), when a leg loses and the combo is out, and when it hits. Each step is sent once, and the alerts stop when the combo is decided. Hold or sell? opens under each card: what selling now nets after the fee, what holding is worth on average, and for every open leg what the combo would be worth if that leg wins (or $0 if it misses), with the weakest leg named. Cash-out alerts: set an amount the cash-out worth should reach, or fall to, and Terry pushes you once when it gets there (it re-arms if the worth moves 10% back past the line); it needs Alert me on for that combo. You can keep 25 combos on a device, with alerts on 10 at once. Remove finished clears the won and lost ones. Leg alerts: the Leg alerts box at the top of My combos turns on a push for every tracked combo at once (or use Alert me on one card). Each time a leg hits, the push names it and says what the combo is now worth and your profit or loss on your stake; when a leg misses it says the combo is out and the loss; when the last leg hits it says what it paid. The worth uses the other legs' live prices less the combo fee, so it is an estimate of a sale, not a promise. Turning alerts on again for a combo you already watch teaches it your stake and price without losing its progress.
Read a combo from a screenshot. Screenshot your combo in the Polymarket app (the screen with Cost and To win at the top), upload it from the box at the top of the Sports tab (it stays visible in every section), and Terry reads it with a free text reader: which legs have won or lost (from the final scores), which are still open and at what price, the chance the rest all win, what the combo is worth now and a cash-out estimate that includes the combo fee. The picture is held in memory only and deleted straight away. It is read by software, so check the legs it shows against your screenshot; prices are the ones in the picture, not live. After it reads the combo, Find these markets and track this combo looks each leg up on the exchange (moneyline, spread, total, and player props by name and line). Each leg has to match a game with both of its teams, so a different game that shares a name (West Georgia for Georgia) is never taken for it. Found legs show the game's live score and clock and today's price, and a “Live right now” box shows what the combo is worth now, its cash-out estimate and your net with today's prices. If every leg is found, one tap tracks it in My combos with your real stake and price, live scores and the Alert me button. The search starts by itself right after the picture is read, and the games are kept warm on the server while the Sports tab is in use, so it is usually quick. You can also paste a screenshot (Ctrl or ⌘ + V) or drop it on the upload box. If the read is wrong, This read is wrong sends the text the reader found (never the picture) so it can be fixed. A leg that cannot be found is named with the closest game Terry saw; Search again scans the exchange afresh, and Track anyway follows the combo with that leg held at the price in your picture (it is marked as not tracked live and cannot send alerts).
Value board and alerts. Single legs the books rate above the price, after the exchange fee. Turn on Sports value in Alerts for a push when a search finds one with at least a 5¢ edge.
Track record. Every suggestion is saved and settled after its games, and the page shows the stated chance against what happened, plus the median premium combos have charged by leg count. The server reads the combo market every half hour to build that history.
Limits that protect the odds credits
The picks read live sportsbook odds from a paid feed that charges credits per call. To keep a busy day from using them up, each visitor can press the search buttons only a limited number of times an hour, the odds are reused for 20 minutes, and the server stops buying new odds once its daily call budget or its credit reserve is reached (it then shows the last odds it has). The meter under the size buttons shows credits left and calls used today.
How to read the results
Chance is not safety.A 5-leg combo at 60% a leg wins about 8% of the time. A high chance only means fewer legs or likelier legs.
Look at the price, not just the prize.In recent fills, short combos traded about 6–18% above their legs multiplied, and long parlays far more. The fee comes on top, so buying a combo is usually paying a premium.
The picks are only as good as the odds.Sportsbook consensus already contains injuries and form. When it matches Polymarket's price there is no edge, and the page shows none.
Cash-out needs a bid.At fair value, selling early only returns what you paid in fees. It helps when a combo is nearly won and you would rather lock it; a wide book takes much of that away.
No sure thing
Nothing here is a guarantee of profit. Combos lose when any leg loses, prices change in seconds, and the combo price on the page is an estimate until you ask the exchange for a quote. Not financial advice.
Section 10 · Signs10 minute read
Signs to look for.
The same few signals drive nearly every good and bad Up/Down trade. Learn to see them and the desk starts to read like a story.
Sign 1 · Distance vs time left
This is the big one. How likely is Up to win if BTC's 60-second average is above the price to beat by this much? (The same numbers apply to Down when BTC is below.) Calculated with Terry's model at typical BTC volatility; on a wild day the odds are lower, on a calm day higher.
15-minute window · time left
+$20
+$40
+$100
+$200
12 min
54%
57%
68%
82%
10 min
54%
58%
69%
84%
5 min
56%
62%
77%
93%
3 min
58%
66%
84%
98%
1 min
70%
86%
>99%
>99%
1-hour window · time left
+$40
+$100
+$200
+$400
50 min
53%
59%
67%
81%
30 min
55%
61%
71%
87%
15 min
56%
66%
79%
95%
5 min
62%
77%
93%
>99%
How to use it
Compare the table to the ask plus about 1.5¢ of fee. If Up costs 72¢ and the table says 62%, you're overpaying. If Up costs 72¢ with BTC +$100 and 3 minutes left (84%), that's the kind of gap Terry looks for. Early in a window, even big leads are far from safe.
Sign 2 · Momentum and acceleration
Direction matters more when it's speeding up. BTC rising over 2 minutes and over the last 15–30 seconds is stronger than a slow drift. Watch the chart's last few candles and the live price ticking against the needle. A move that stalls right at the price to beat is a warning, not a signal.
Sign 3 · The spread and the book
Tight spread (1–3¢): healthy market, cheap to get in and out.
Wide spread (6¢+): Terry won't buy. You lose too much just crossing it.
Thin depth: few contracts at the best price means your size moves the price. Selling a big position late can be much worse than the quote.
Lopsided book: far more size on one side's bids often shows where traders expect the result to go.
Sign 4 · Trade flow
A run of "buy Up" takers with rising volume says traders are paying up for Up. Flow can lead the price for a few seconds. But don't read one big print as a signal on its own; cumulative volume can't tell you who is behind it.
Sign 5 · Late-window traps
Trap
The hugging close
BTC within $10–20 of the beat with 2 minutes left is close to a coin flip no matter how the chart looks. Terry refuses entries this close to the beat.
Trap
Paying 97¢ for a sure thing
At 97¢ you risk 97¢ to make 3¢ minus fees. One late reversal wipes out 30 wins. Terry sells at 97¢+ instead of buying there.
Trap
Chasing a spike
A contract that jumped 15¢ in seconds often gives some back. Wait for a retest.
Good sign
A settled cushion late
With under a minute left, much of the 60-second average is already locked in. A solid lead in the final minute is far safer than the same lead earlier.
Sign 6 · Terry's own tells
Lean with a long reason usually means gates are close but not passing. Watch that desk.
"Too close to settlement" with a strong lean: the leading side is likely winning but the price is no longer cheap.
A buy on one desk and a lean the same way on the other: the move is strong across both time frames.
FORCE alerts (opt-in) fire only when BTC is far from the beat, the gap is growing, momentum agrees and the book is already heavily skewed. See Alerts.
Sign 7 · Data health
If the lamp is amber or the price source says composite stand-in or Coinbase spot, the numbers are an estimate of the official index. Give yourself a bigger margin, or wait.
Pre-trade checklist
Data is live and on the official BRTI index.
BTC is at least $40 from the beat, in the direction you're buying.
The table's odds beat the ask plus fee by a few cents.
The spread is 3¢ or less and there's depth for your size.
Momentum agrees, or at least isn't fighting you.
You know your exit: target, stop, or hold to settlement.
Buying in the first 2 minutes before the direction forms.
Buying at 90¢+ for a few cents of upside.
Averaging down on a loser because "it has to come back".
Section 11 · Trading yourself8 minute read
How to trade.
If you want to trade the BTC Up/Down markets yourself, here's a plain, conservative game plan built from the same rules that keep Terry out of trouble.
Before you start
Only trade money you can afford to lose completely. Up/Down contracts can go to $0 in minutes. Copying Terry has delays and different fills. TerryCalls is a research and trading desk, not financial advice and not an offer to trade for you.
Step by step
Open both screens.The TerryCalls desk for context, and the same window on Polymarket US (polymarket.us → Crypto → Bitcoin Up or Down). Make sure the window times match.
Wait out the open.Let the price to beat publish and BTC pick a direction: 2 minutes on the 15m, 3 minutes on the 1h.
Find a gap.BTC $40+ from the beat, momentum agreeing, and a price below the odds in the signs table by a few cents after fees.
Size small.A good rule for beginners: never more than 2–5% of your balance on one window. Terry's normal entries are typically $125–$250 (soft trust $60–$80).
Place the order.Enter a dollar amount on the side you want and check the price and fee before confirming. Remember you get whole contracts only.
Set your exit in advance.Decide your profit target, your stop, and whether you'll hold to settlement. Write it down if you have to.
Manage it.Your position is worth the bid, minus the sell fee. Take profit at your target, cut at your stop, and bank it if the bid reaches 97¢.
Review.Compare your trade to Terry's receipt for the same window. What did he see that you didn't?
A simple exit plan borrowed from Terry
Situation
Terry's rule
A beginner version
Up nicely early
Take profit at 8–18% of cost
Sell at +15% unless you planned to hold
Was up, now giving it back
Sell after giving back 35% of the best gain
Don't let a winner turn into a loser
Losing
Stop at 30–35% of cost, confirmed across updates
Pick a stop before you buy and respect it
Bid at 97¢+
Bank it
Take the money
Strong lead, last minute
Hold to $1
Holding is reasonable if the lead is big
Following Terry's calls
Terry's buys can be a useful signal, but copying them exactly doesn't reproduce his results:
You'll be late.By the time you see a buy, the ask may have moved. If it's already several cents higher, the edge Terry saw may be gone.
You'll compete for the same book.By the time your order lands, size and price may have moved. Other traders are in the queue too.
Know his exit, not just his entry.A swing buy might be sold minutes later. Watch his open-position review.
Use his "sits" too.When Terry says the ask is above fair value, that's a reason for you to wait as well.
Mistakes that cost beginners the most
Forgetting fees on quick flips
Buying at 50¢ and selling at 52¢ loses money: about 1.7¢ of fee each way is 3.4¢. Quick flips need a real move.
Trusting a single exchange's price
Settlement is BRTI, a multi-exchange average. Your exchange can show BTC "above" when the index isn't. Use the desk's BRTI reading.
Buying because the chart "looks like it's going up"
Without distance and time, a trend means little. $30 of upward drift with 12 minutes left is close to a coin flip.
Revenge trading the next window
Each window is independent. A loss doesn't make the next one more likely to win. Terry has a cooldown and a per-window cap for a reason.
Oversizing late in the window
Late books are thinner and prices jump. Terry cuts late entries to $60–$80, about half his normal size. You should shrink too.
Section 12 · Alerts5 minute read
Alerts & the app.
TerryCalls installs like an app and can ping your phone when Terry buys, sells or pauses, so you don't have to stare at the desk all day.
Install it
iPhone / iPad
Safari → Share → Add to Home Screen
Open terrycalls.com in Safari, tap Share, then "Add to Home Screen". Open it from the home screen icon; iOS only allows alerts for installed web apps.
Android / desktop
Install from the browser
In Chrome, use the Install prompt or menu → "Install app". Alerts also work in a normal browser tab.
Turn on alerts
Use the Desk alerts bar (on the Leans, Trades and More tabs) and tap Turn on, then allow notifications. You can pick categories per device:
Category
What it sends
Default
Entry
Terry opened a position (side, price, size).
On
Exit
A sale or official settlement, with the P/L.
On
Pause
A desk was paused or resumed.
On
Feed
The Polymarket data feed degraded or recovered.
On
Lean
Terry's lean changed to Up or Down.
Off
New window
A new 15-minute or 1-hour window opened.
Off
Force
A strong, accelerating one-way move (below).
Off
Mute silences alerts on this device. Quiet is different: it only hides the long explanation text on the desk. You can also turn off notifications for terrycalls.com in your phone's settings.
Price alerts you set yourself
BTC price
On the chart
Set a BTC level on the Chart tab and get a ping when BTC crosses it, even with the page closed once alerts are on.
Contract price
Tell me when it can be sold at…
On the Tape tab's profit-target card, or in My position, pick a price. When Up or Down can be sold at that price in the current window you get a ping. It works as a profit target or a warning, rings once and expires when the window ends. Up to 10 alerts per device.
Price alerts are yours, so quiet hours (below) never mute them. With alerts off, they ring inside the page while it is open.
Quiet hours
With alerts on, the alert settings (on the Leans, Trades and More tabs) show Quiet hours. Pick a start and end time in your time zone: until the end, Terry's entry, exit, pause, lean and window pings are held back. Equal times switch it off. It can wrap past midnight.
Updates
When TerryCalls ships a new version, an open app shows a New update ready card. Installed apps are asked to restart; in a browser tab you can choose Later.
What a FORCE alert means
FORCE is a rare, opt-in alert for a one-way push that's already strong. It fires only when all of these hold:
Live official BRTI data (never the stand-in) and a healthy Polymarket feed.
BTC at least $80 from the beat on the 15m ($120 on the 1h), with the gap growing over consecutive readings.
Short-term BTC momentum accelerating in the same direction.
The book already heavily favoring that side (ask of 70¢+ or mid of 65¢+).
At most once per side per window, and never within 10 minutes of the last FORCE.
FORCE is not a buy button
It says the move is strong. It does not say the price is cheap. By design the favored side is already expensive when it fires. Check the odds table before acting. FORCE alerts put a badge on the home-screen icon and open straight to that desk.
Section 13 · GlossaryReference
Glossary.
Every term you'll see on the desk and in these docs, in plain English.
Ask
The lowest price a seller will accept. What you pay to buy.
Bid
The highest price a buyer will pay. What you get when you sell.
BRTI
CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index. The official one-second BTC price every Polymarket US crypto market settles on.
60-second average
The mean of the last 60 one-second BRTI prices. Both the price to beat and the close are computed this way.
Break-even
The price you need to sell at to get back your cost including both fees. On a lean card, the win rate the ask needs to be worth buying.
Calibration
Whether stated odds match results: of the times Terry said 60–65%, how often was he right?
Cash out
Selling a combo (or any position) before it settles, at the book's bid.
Combo
A single position that joins 2 to 10 market legs and pays only if every leg comes in the way you chose.
Crossed book
Buys and sells filling at prices that overlap, so a buyer and seller could in principle swap and both gain. Rare and short-lived.
Composite stand-in
Terry's backup index when official BRTI is unavailable: the median of Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp and Gemini.
Contract
One unit of a market. Pays $1.00 if its side wins, $0.00 if not.
Depth
How many contracts sit at each price in the order book.
Desk
One of Terry's two independent books: 15-minute or 1-hour.
Distance from beat
BTC's 60-second average minus the price to beat. Positive means Up is leading.
Edge
The model's probability minus the all-in cost (ask + fee). Positive edge means the contract looks cheap.
Executable / full sell
What the whole position would fetch if sold right now into the visible bids, after the sell fee. Terry's P/L uses this.
Fair value
The model's estimate of what a contract is worth: its probability of paying $1.
FORCE
An opt-in alert for a strong, accelerating one-way move.
Last fair market price (LFMP)
The price a leg settles at when it cannot resolve to Yes or No (a cancelled match). It reduces a combo's payout without voiding it.
Lean
The side Terry currently favors, even when he isn't buying.
Leg
One market inside a combo, with the side you took on it.
Maker / taker
A maker's order rests on the book; a taker's order fills immediately against it. Takers pay the fee; makers get a small rebate.
Mark
A periodic re-pricing of an open position against the live book.
Fill
An executed buy or sale against the live Polymarket US order book, after fees and whole-contract sizing.
Partial fill
Only part of an order filled because not enough size was available at your price.
Plan
Terry's intent for a trade: a swing (resell higher within the window) or settlement (hold to the official $1/$0).
Premium (combo)
How much more a combo traded for than its legs' prices multiplied together.
Price to beat
The official opening value of an Up/Down window. Up wins if the close is at or above it.
Quiet hours
A daily window in which your device is not pinged, except by price alerts you set yourself.
Robust probability
The least favorable of the model's low, normal and high-volatility estimates.
Settlement
The official result, paid out about a minute after the window closes.
Slippage
Getting a worse average price than the quote because your order ate through several price levels.
Soft trust
A down-sized ($60–$80) entry that passed the gates but was late, chasing, or only a thin edge.
Spread
Ask minus bid. The cost of an instant round trip.
Stop loss
A sale to cap a losing trade. Terry's is 30–35% of cost, confirmed across multiple book updates.
Thin beat
BTC within $40 of the price to beat. Terry won't open a position.
Volatility (σ)
How much BTC typically moves per second. Higher volatility means today's lead is less safe.
Window
The time span of one Up/Down market: 15 minutes or 1 hour.
Section 14 · FAQReference
FAQ & troubleshooting.
The questions people ask most, with straight answers.
About Terry
Are the trades and results on the site real money?
The calls are live: Terry reads the real Polymarket US order book as it moves. Fills shown here follow the prices and sizes in that book; your own fills will differ. Past results do not mean future profit, and nothing on this site is financial advice.
Why hasn't Terry traded in a while?
Usually because no gate passes: BTC is too close to the price to beat, the price is fair or expensive after fees, the spread is wide, or it's the opening or closing minutes. The desk shows the exact reason under "Terry outlook". Sitting is a decision.
Why did Terry sell a winner early?
His exits compare the sale against holding. A profit target, trailing stop, or the 97¢ bank can lock in a gain that later would have been bigger. The receipt shows what the official result was, so you can judge.
Why did the P/L jump when nothing traded?
Open P/L is the full sell value after fees, recalculated every few seconds. If bids thin out or step down, the executable value drops even without a trade.
Can I trust the results?
Every entry and exit is checked against a fresh book: whole contracts only, live depth, and real fees. Other traders still compete for the same liquidity, so your own fills can differ. Results are forward-looking; nothing is backfilled.
About sports combos
Can the Sports tab find a sure profit?
Only when prices disagree, and that is rare. The locked-profit scan looks for it and often finds nothing. When it does find something, every leg is a separate order, so it is only locked if all legs fill. The "best chance" picks are about winning often, not about guaranteed profit.
Why does a combo cost more than the legs multiplied?
The seller of a combo takes the other side of every leg and charges for it, and combo buyers also pay a higher taker fee. Recent fills show short combos about 6–18% above the product of their legs, and long parlays far above it. The "combo market" part of the Sports tab measures this live.
Why does the Sports tab say "needs an odds key"?
The best-chance picks use sportsbook odds as an outside view of each game. Without that data feed switched on the page cannot see them, so it shows the combo market and the locked-profit scan only.
What does "crossed" mean on a combo?
Sells were filling above buys during the sample, so the book was crossed for a moment. Someone can in principle buy at the low price and sell at the high one. These gaps are small and are usually taken within seconds.
About the data
The desk says "Delayed" or "Stale"
Readings stopped advancing. It usually recovers on its own within seconds. If it persists, Polymarket may be in maintenance (Thursdays 6–8 AM ET) or its feed may be degraded; watch for the banner.
"US opening price pending"
Polymarket publishes the price to beat a few seconds after the window starts. If it's late, Terry computes it from the official one-second index with Polymarket's own recipe, and swaps in the official value as soon as it appears.
Why is TerryCalls' BTC price different from my exchange?
TerryCalls shows BRTI, the official multi-exchange index that decides the result. Single exchanges often differ by a few dollars.
"Settlement pending (venue)"
The window has closed but Polymarket hasn't published the result yet. It normally arrives within a minute, sometimes a few. Terry never guesses results.
The price source says "composite" or "Coinbase"
The official index feed is temporarily unavailable, so Terry is using his labelled stand-in, with bigger safety margins. It switches back automatically.
About the site
What are the tabs along the top?
Home is the quick look: Terry's leans, his latest trades and the chart. Leans, Trades, Chart, Tape and Record open each part in full, Sports is the combo tab, and More has the introduction, alert settings and desk health. See How to watch Terry.
Where is my position stored?
The My position tracker keeps your position and journal in this browser only. Nothing is sent to TerryCalls. If you clear site data or switch devices, it starts empty; use the CSV export first if you want to keep the journal.
A "New update ready" card appeared
TerryCalls was updated while the page was open. Tap Restart now to load the new version (a browser tab also offers Later). Nothing is lost: your tracked position and settings are stored on your device.
I don't get alerts on my iPhone
Install the site to your home screen first (Safari → Share → Add to Home Screen), open it from the icon, then turn on alerts. Also check Settings → Notifications for TerryCalls, and make sure you didn't tap Mute.
Can I chat on TerryCalls?
The chat panel shows the current market's comments from Polymarket US. It's read-only here; use the link to reply on Polymarket.
How do I use "Read the tape"?
It is the Tape tab and has three cards. The tape labels the last few minutes as climbing, dropping, dead, choppy or balanced by comparing them with a normal 5 minutes, and shows the moves, how clean the trend is and how big the swings are. Where it can land shows where the final 60-second average is likely to finish, how far BTC is from the price to beat, and what each contract is worth at each BTC level right now. Profit target takes the side you hold, the price you paid and the price you want to sell at, and shows what BTC has to do, the chance the sale price gets there before the close, the chance your side wins, and whether taking profit beats just holding. It also shows what the contract is worth if BTC stays still while the clock runs down. Everything is a model estimate with no drift assumed; a sale fills at the bid, and the tape can turn at any moment.
How do I share a trade?
Open any trade from a notification or from the trades list and tap Share this trade. Your phone's share sheet gets the picture and a link that opens the same trade view. Where there is no share sheet the link is copied instead.
New strategy (v23, Oct 15, 2026): Sharper pricing model: Terry now reads the true settlement average (the published BTC index is already a 60-second average, so Terry no longer averages it twice). Entries, sizing and the hold-to-close with a wide safety stop are unchanged. The record starts fresh from the switch. Polymarket docs change over time. If anything here disagrees with docs.polymarket.us, the official docs win. This guide describes Terry's strategy as of build terry-us-v23 (settle fix), which replaced terry-us-v22.9 (hold). The market-maker desks hold every position to settlement; they take no early exits. The 15m market maker opens nothing in the first 4 minutes of the window and nothing with under 7 minutes left in it.